Member-only story
Predicting the future — A historical overview
(Of failing to see the potential in new technologies)
Every new year, astrologers make predictions about the future, so do scientists, engineers, researchers, inventors and investors. Despite the vast information that researchers and industry insiders have had at their fingertips, many failed to see the potential of some technologies and made some pretty terrible forecasts over the years. Due to survivorship bias and selection bias, history remembers the most, those predictions that demonstrate spectacular misjudgment or stubbornness to defend old-fashioned-soon-to-be-outdated technologies.
Below I’ve created a timeline of the past 2 centuries (from 1800 till now) to show that even industry leaders don’t always have enough faith, vision or imagination to see the potential of the technology in their (in terms of possibilities, disruptiveness, market impact and adoption).
The pattern is simple: first, people don't believe in the impact of these technologies, then after a while, when these technologies prove themselves and become widespread, people can't understand how someone in the past would have ever made such terrible…
